May
5
BULLS-PISTONS SERIES PREVIEW
Filed Under Chicago Bulls
We’re less than an hour from Game One between the Bulls and the Pistons and here’s my breakdown of the series, beginning with the point guards and finishing with my prediction.
THE FLOOR GENERALS: HINRICH VERSUS BILLUPS
Not the most consistent outside shooter, Bulls’ point guard Kirk Hinrich can settle too often for the three point shot. Hinrich is at his best playing the screen and roll game. When he takes the ball to the rim, Chicago’s offense can explore many opportunities (Deng for a mid-range jumper, Gordon for a three, P.J. Brown off the screen for an open shot). Hinrich is a better scorer off the dribble. While having forward momentum, Hinrich can quickly cross over and get a nice shot. He also is a very decent finisher for his size and likes to toss up high-arching floaters. When Hinrich is aggressive and moving, Chicago’s offense can be really fluid. When he’s beyond the three point-arch, it can get stuck in neutral.
Hinrich’s forte is his defense. He always guards the other team’s best offensive player, so he will get the assignment on Rip Hamilton, who is always moving off screens. Hinrich plays exceptionally hard on defense but can lose his cool when getting called for a foul. He needs to keep his emotions in check and play a much headier series against Detroit than he had against the Heat.
Detroit’s offense runs through Billups, who has a tremendous history of coming up big in the clutch in the playoffs. Individually, Billups is at his best when he can get his back into the defender, back him down with his superior strength for a point guard, and utilize his advantage for a nice turn-around jumper. At times, Billups can pound the ball too much into the floor without going anywhere. Since the ball starts in his hands, Billups needs to not necessarily hurry but must be quick. In other words, don’t lull his offense to sleep like last season during the six-game loss to the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals.
The Pistons are at their best when Billups is feeding to Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince while they’re curling or flaring off screens. When Hamilton and Prince are moving and operating below the free throw line, Detroit’s offense opens up, especially for the three ball. Billups has no qualms about knocking down the three late in games and is excellent off the screen and roll (meaning that Chicago’s big men must hedge him hard or he will knock down the open jumper). When Detroit’s offense is going nowhere, Billups has the ability to take his man off the dribble and free up enough space for an open jumper, which he will usually bury when the shot clock is running down.
ADVANTAGE: BILLUPS
You know what you’re going to get with Billups on both ends of the floor, and he’s shown throughout his playoff career with the Pistons what he can do in big games. With Hinrich, you know he’s going to play a stellar defensive game. Now will he shoot 3-for-13 from the field because he’s settling for jumpers or we’ll he be on the attack, getting into the lane and opening up the game for himself and his teammates? With that said, Hinrich’s always going to give you an honest effort. But the edge is definitely with Billups.
THE SHARPSHOOTERS: GORDON VERSUS HAMILTON
Despite scoring 21 points per game this season, I still feel that Gordon doesn’t get enough credit for his role on this team. Gordon and Deng are often the bailout options when Chicago’s offense is going nowhere. Despite the growing Deng buzz, Gordon is the guy whom Bulls fans should want taking a big shot. In his three years in the league, no one (but Gordon himself) has shown the ability to stop him from getting into the lane. He is also one of the most innovative players in the game for his size. Gordon possesses an array of shots, from floaters high off the glass to pop-back jumpers and much more. Gordon was excellent against the Heat (especially in Game Two) in spotting up, stepping into threes and burying nothing but net. He loves the three point shot and can ring them up with the best of them in the league when he’s feeling it. Gordon also possesses nasty dribbling skills and quickness, leaving opponents off-balance.
While he used to play very uneven games, Gordon has improved in becoming more consistent. He can especially take over games for a quarter or so and notch double-digit points with ease. When he’s in form, Gordon is one of the most dynamic scorers in the league. At when he absolutely needs to score, Gordon will get to the rim quickly and efficiently. He has also become much better at getting to the foul line, where he is an exceptional shooter. Gordon’s durability in the long haul leaves some concern as he does hit the floor hard a handful of times a game. Sometimes, this is Gordon selling a foul and other times it’s him really taking a spill.
As said earlier, Gordon can be his own worst enemy. He does have lapses in judgment at times that are maddening. He can be careless with the ball and throw some terrible passes. With that said, Gordon’s offensive explosions and vast improvement in terms of being a distributor (when Hinrich is on the bench) offset his temporary lapses. While he can easily be posted up on based on his size, Gordon is not as bad a defender as people say when he applies himself. He did a nice job against the Heat at times from coming from the weak side and challenging passes to Shaquille O’Neal.
The difference with Ben Gordon thus far in the playoffs as compared to the previous two years is that he hasn’t had a game where he goes off followed by one where he’s nonexistent. Gordon must be a factor in every game versus Detroit for the Bulls to win (even though he scored two points last month at the Palace during a Chicago blowout win, the Bulls won’t be able to pull out games like that in the playoffs)!
Hamilton is, without doubt, the best player in the league at moving off the ball. He is essentially Reggie Miller but with more of a mid-range game. When Hamilton comes off screens, he’s tough to deter, and his shot is money. Like Miller, he’s also good at getting himself into defenders and drawing fouls. Hamilton works too hard on offense and will get his points each night.
Hamilton will be defended by the pesky Hinrich, and the two have had a history of conflict. Hamilton has alleged that Hinrich is constantly grabbing and holding him off screens. Hinrich has already said that Hamilton will be complaining to the refs throughout the series about his defense. That seems to be a certainty as Hamilton has a history of being in the refs’ ears.
Hamilton can step out and hit the three as well, but he is definitely much better from 18-feet and in. He’s a tough defender, but his lean figure can be taken advantage of (meaning that the Bulls can get fouls on him).
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Both of these UCONN products are going to score. This shooting guard battle can definitely swing to Gordon’s favor if he plays up to his capabilities (which I feel he will as Ben and Deng have grown up a lot in their third seasons). Both of these players are unique in the league for what they can do. Gordon is the more dynamic scorer though.
THE LONG ONES: DENG VERSUS PRINCE
Luol Deng and Tayshaun Prince create match-up problems with their long lengths. Deng has really come into his own in his third season, leading the Bulls in scoring against Miami. You can forget about the three-point shot with Deng. He is a mid-range jump shooter and an excellent zone buster. Deng and Gordon may be becoming the best duo in the league at pulling up on the fast break and knocking down jumpers from behind the arc and inside it, respectively. He showed his ability against the Heat to close games with his jump shooting. Deng’s an excellent stand-still jump shooter off the baseline and is vastly improving while coming off screens.
When he takes the ball to the hole, Deng will often glide through the air and use his length for effective bank shots. Deng really works hard on the offensive end, which often pays off with rebounds that he sticks back in the hole quickly. With Gordon, he has proven to be a more consistent player in the playoffs so far this year. Deng still doesn’t have a consistent post game, and if he’s fading away to the baseline, he’s not too successful.
Deng’s length and work ethic on defense is tough to handle. While he can strip the ball, he is more effective in my opinion at simply getting his long arms in the air to contest the shot trajectory of the opponent. He has also become much stronger from his rookie season. While really solid, Deng is not the defensive player of Prince, who uses his length and unique skills better than probably anyone else. Prince is a master of not giving up on the play. He can make up ground quickly and block opponents from behind, and essentially not only change the outcome of the play but also the momentum of a game and even a series. He also is an invaluable weak side asset and does a great job on the perimeter.
On offense, Prince is at his best when he’s on the move and going to the rim. Like Deng, his length makes it very hard to block his shot. Prince likes to post up just outside the box. At times, Detroit’s offense can get bogged down when his back is to the basket. In other words, Prince can be too methodical on the block. With that said, Prince can easily get to the rim and use his wingspan to simply drop the ball in the basket over his defender. Prince also does a nice job of using the glass to his advantage.
Prince likes to shoot the three and can be very effective. But he is most dangerous when he takes his skills mid-range.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
This could very well be the match up where this series turns. Will Prince be able to use his long length to limit Deng and keep him in check from huge games? Or will Deng be able to still find his gaps in the defense and knock down the open jumper?
DR. JEKYLL/MR HYDE: BROWN VERSUS R. WALLACE
Talk about a contrast in personalities. P.J. Brown was brought to Chicago to anchor the Bulls’ interior defense and be a veteran presence along with Ben Wallace and Adrian Griffin. Rasheed Wallace is one of the most unique and volatile big-men in the history of the NBA. Wallace can go off on offense and the officials at any time.
Brown gives Chicago excellent minutes on defense. He can slide over and guard the opposing team’s center (and more importantly spell Ben Wallace). Brown can also hold his own against the opponent when drawn away from the basket. Brown moves his feet well and is there to contest shots, grab some rebounds and be solid all-around.
Brown is limited but underrated on offense. He is an effective mid-range jumper off of screens. Chicago should try to take advantage of this aspect of Brown’s skills here because he can get 10 to 12 quality and efficient points per game.
While his temperament has definitely been the defining aspect of his stellar career, I don’t care what anyone says about Rasheed Wallace. He is one of the most talented big men to ever play in the NBA. He is at his best on the post. His shot over-the-top can not be blocked and is highly efficient. When Wallace was on the Blazers and battling the Lakers all those years, he was always the X-factor. He could and would score at will down low when he wanted to.
Wallace is also a very solid jump shooter. However, he drifts out way too much to the three point line. If this guy stayed on the block all game, the Pistons would be that much more tougher to beat. While he can hit some huge threes, Wallace can take some very bad ones and really hurt Detroit’s offense. It’s all about shot selection with Rasheed.
ADVANTAGE: RASHEED WALLACE
Wallace obviously gets the edge because he is the much more talented player. He has played hard with the Pistons since being traded to Detroit in 2004. As I said earlier, if Rasheed stays on the block, the Bulls (even Ben Wallace) will have difficulties. If he’s more perimeter-oriented, he will be playing right into the Bulls’ hands. Brown will be solid for Chicago this series and needs to keep doing what he’s been doing since becoming a permanent member of the starting lineup earlier this season.
THE PUNISHERS: B. WALLACE VERSUS WEBBER
Ok. To begin with, you may be wondering why I would consider Webber a punisher. He’s nowhere as physical as Ben Wallace and frankly has the reputation of being soft in big games. Webber has gotten a terrible rap in his pro career because of the 1993 National Championship Game in which he called the infamous timeout for Michigan.
With that said, Webber is one of the most unique big-men to ever play the game. He is one of the best big-man passers that I’ve seen. The same goes for his ability to hit the jump shot. While he is not explosive anywhere, Webber can punish the Bulls with his mid-range game. In fact, Webber’s mid-season arrival may just be enough to keep the Bulls down in this series and give the Pistons another shot at three Finals appearances in four years.
Returning to Detroit where he became a household name and the backbone of these recent great Pistons’ teams, Ben Wallace has shown his value in the playoffs this year with the Bulls. While Wallace seemed disinterested in last year’s playoffs for Detroit and during the regular season, the $60 million acquisition was the difference this year for the Bulls to beat the Heat.
Wallace played excellent defense on the aging O’Neal. When Shaq got too far down low, he gave him the dunk instead of collecting fouls which landed him on the bench. More importantly, Wallace pushed O’Neal off the block for the most part. And he was active throughout the series on both ends of the floor, grabbing rebounds and keeping possessions alive for the Bulls.
Wallace even gave the Bulls some offense in the first-round series. Despite his limitations, Wallace has always been an effective offensive player when a guard could get in the lane and get him dunks or easy lay-ins. I didn’t realize how good of a passer Wallace truly is. Chicago often gets him the ball in the post, and he can hit a slasher like Deng on the back cut.
Coming back to Motown, Wallace is obviously going to hear it from the Detroit fans. Wallace needs to keep his emotions in check in the first two games. If he does this, he still has the skills to show Detroit and Head Coach Flip Saunders that some of his gripes about the Pistons’ offense being too one-on-one last year were valid. I’m expecting a huge series from Wallace, who is not the player he once was but has that chip on his shoulder.
ADVANTAGE: BEN WALLACE
Expect Detroit to throw a lot at Ben this series, especially in the first two games in Detroit. If the score’s tight at the end of these games, Detroit would be smart to foul Wallace and let him show that he can hit free throws at the raucous Palace as he did last weekend in Miami. With that said, Wallace is the defensive soul of this Bulls time. His contributions come from energy, solid defense, deflections and all of those little things that can often turn a series. Webber can prove once and for all in this series how underappreciated a player he truly is by hitting the open jumper.
THE BENCH: THE NOCIONI GANG VERSUS THE DETROIT SEVEN
Andres Nocioni has predicted the Bulls in seven and if he plays like he’s capable of, it may be shorter. In my opinion, Nocioni is the heart and soul of this team. He can come off the bench and score 20 points any night. Nocioni is a playoff performer and hits big shots in big moments after seemingly at times playing with his head cut off. He is tough, physical and aggressive, and the very definition of a s**t starter. His emotion is exciting. Chicago will take a step back if they lose this guy to free agency next season.
Chicago’s bench also features guard Chris Duhon, who followed two ineffective games in Chicago versus the Heat with two solid ones in Miami to help clinch the series. Duhon is a heady player, which can often be his worst enemy. He tends to overthink at times and pass up his shot. When Duhon is looking to shoot and keep the other team honest, he is a big contributor. Duhon is a solid defender.
Chicago’s defense can further be bolstered by the play of rookies Thabo Sefolosha and Tyrus Thomas. Sefolosha did a great job of containing Dwyane Wade in Game 1 in Chicago and can create problems with his length and solid defensive footwork. While offensively raw, Thomas is a game changer on defense with his tremendous athleticism. A Thomas thunderous block or dunk could change the flow of a game. Expect Bulls’ Coach Scott Skiles to give Thomas more minutes this series. The rookie from LSU can be a big factor and alter Webber, Rasheed Wallace and Antonio McDyess down low. Steady veterans Griffin and Malik Allen may play important moments to help keep the Bulls in line when the Palace is loud.
Detroit’s bench is not as solid as it was when they won the title in 2004. McDyess is capable of big things off the bench and is an excellent shooter fading away and standing still. Lindsey Hunter is old but still gives the Pistons solid defense. He can also still surprise you with a big three once every while. From here, Detroit’s bench is an enigma. Guards Carlos Delfino and Flip Murray show flashes at times of being huge factors but they’re still too inconsistent. Dale Davis is ridiculously old but still can eat up some minutes down low. Jason Maxiell is young but plays the game with an energy comparable to Tyrus Thomas. I think his lack of size can be offset in this series by Chicago.
ADVANTAGE: The Nocioni Gang
The nod goes to Chicago with Nocioni’s presence.
THE COACHES: SKILES VERSUS SAUNDERS
I’m not a huge fan of either coach in-game, but I do like how both teams are prepared. Skiles’ value has been changing the culture of the Bulls and getting his players to play hard every night in a team-oriented system. No team plays as hard as Chicago, and Bulls run some very nice offensive sets.
Skiles had a nice series against Miami, but he still needs to get Tyrus Thomas more time. It may be a good idea to get Allen some minutes, as the veteran power forward can hit the open jumper as well. Skiles has been using timeouts well in the playoffs to make sure that the Bulls don’t let things slip (as they have done with big leads all season). Skiles can really prove himself this series.
Saunders is a nice coach as well but there are still questions of whether he’s the type of guy who can lead the team to the promised land and win it all. Saunders was one of the first coaches in the league to really use the zone to his advantage when coaching the Timberwolves. He is excellent in terms of preparation and knowledge of the game.
Saunders has made Billups and Prince the focal points of his offensive system in Detroit. These moves have helped these players but not made Detroit as fun to watch as when they beat the Lakers in 2004. When the Pistons move the ball, they are excellent to watch. Sometimes, Saunder’s offense can get too bogged down with Billups and Prince.
ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Neither of these guys stand out from the other (although Saunders has gone deeper in the playoffs than Skiles). Both are good coaches, but the players are going to decide this series.
SERIES PREDICTION: BULLS IN SIX
Chicago will win this series if they don’t beat themselves. The NBA is all about match ups and the Bulls fare well with the Pistons. Detroit’s players are more talented but the Bulls can offset this with their depth, and the defensive presence of Ben Wallace and the offensive capabilities of Gordon and Deng. Chicago played well against Miami but will need to be much better against the Pistons, who will close out games and take advantage if the Bulls don’t finish.
These games should be close to the wire, which gives Detroit the advantage. Game One is a must-win for Chicago. Having to win Game Two may be too much pressure for this team. If the Bulls go down 2-0, the Pistons will win in six. If it’s split after two games, the Bulls will take it in six.
This will definitely be fun to see the Bulls-Pistons square off again in the playoffs for the first time since the 1991 Eastern Conference Finals. I just think Detroit’s run with this team is over. I’ve been watching this young Bulls team grow since the 2004-2005 season and think they are as capable of any team in the East when hitting on all cylinders. I like the Bulls to meet the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals.
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